An Essay Concerning Humane Understanding, Volume II. - John Locke
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But if assent be grounded on likelihood, if the proper object and motive
of our assent be probability, and that probability consists in what is
laid down in the foregoing chapters, it will be demanded HOW MEN COME TO
GIVE THEIR ASSENTS CONTRARY TO PROBABILITY. For there is nothing more
common than contrariety of opinions; nothing more obvious than that
one man wholly disbelieves what another only doubts of, and a third
steadfastly believes and firmly adheres to.
The reasons whereof, though they may be very various, yet, I suppose may
all be reduced to these four:
I. WANT OF PROOFS.
II. WANT OF ABILITY TO USE THEM.
III. WANT OF WILL TO SEE THEM.
IV. WRONG MEASURES OF PROBABILITY.
2. First cause of Error, Want of Proofs.
FIRST, By WANT OF PROOFS, I do not mean only the want of those proofs
which are nowhere extant, and so are nowhere to be had; but the want
even of those proofs which are in being, or might be procured. And thus
men want proofs, who have not the convenience or opportunity to make
experiments and observations themselves, tending to the proof of any
proposition; nor likewise the convenience to inquire into and collect
the testimonies of others: and in this state are the greatest part of
mankind, who are given up to labour, and enslaved to the necessity of
their mean condition, whose lives are worn out only in the provisions
for living. These men's opportunities of knowledge and inquiry are
commonly as narrow as their fortunes; and their understandings are but
little instructed, when all their whole time and pains is laid out to
still the croaking of their own bellies, or the cries of their children.
It is not to be expected that a man who drudges on all his life in a
laborious trade, should be more knowing in the variety of things done
in the world than a packhorse, who is driven constantly forwards and
backwards in a narrow lane and dirty road, only to market, should be
skilled in the geography of the country. Nor is it at all more possible,
that he who wants leisure, books, and languages, and the opportunity
of conversing with variety of men, should be in a condition to collect
those testimonies and observations which are in being, and are necessary
to make out many, nay most, of the propositions that, in the societies
of men, are judged of the greatest moment; or to find out grounds of
assurance so great as the belief of the points he would build on them is
thought necessary. So that a great part of mankind are, by the natural
and unalterable state of things in this world, and the constitution of
human affairs, unavoidably given over to invincible ignorance of those
proofs on which others build, and which are necessary to establish those
opinions: the greatest part of men, having much to do to get the means
of living, are not in a condition to look after those of learned and
laborious inquiries.
3. Objection, What shall become of those who want Proofs? Answered.
What shall we say, then? Are the greatest part of mankind, by the
necessity of their condition, subjected to unavoidable ignorance, in
those things which are of greatest importance to them? (for of those
it is obvious to inquire.) Have the bulk of mankind no other guide but
accident and blind chance to conduct them to their happiness or
misery? Are the current opinions, and licensed guides of every country
sufficient evidence and security to every man to venture his great
concernments on; nay, his everlasting happiness or misery? Or can those
be the certain and infallible oracles and standards of truth, which
teach one thing in Christendom and another in Turkey? Or shall a poor
countryman be eternally happy, for having the chance to be born in
Italy; or a day-labourer be unavoidably lost, because he had the
ill-luck to be born in England? How ready some men may be to say some of
these things, I will not here examine: but this I am sure, that men must
allow one or other of these to be true, (let them choose which they
please,) or else grant that God has furnished men with faculties
sufficient to direct them in the way they should take, if they will but
seriously employ them that way, when their ordinary vocations allow them
the leisure. No man is so wholly taken up with the attendance on the
means of living, as to have no spare time at all to think of his soul,
and inform himself in matters of religion. Were men as intent upon this
as they are on things of lower concernment, there are none so enslaved
to the necessities of life who might not find many vacancies that might
be husbanded to this advantage of their knowledge.
4. People hindered from Inquiry.
Besides those whose improvements and informations are straitened by
the narrowness of their fortunes, there are others whose largeness of
fortune would plentifully enough supply books, and other requisites for
clearing of doubts, and discovering of truth: but they are cooped in
close, by the laws of their countries, and the strict guards of those
whose interest it is to keep them ignorant, lest, knowing more, they
should believe the less in them. These are as far, nay further, from
the liberty and opportunities of a fair inquiry, than these poor and
wretched labourers we before spoke of: and however they may seem high
and great, are confined to narrowness of thought, and enslaved in that
which should be the freest part of man, their understandings. This is
generally the case of all those who live in places where care is taken
to propagate truth without knowledge; where men are forced, at a
venture, to be of the religion of the country; and must therefore
swallow down opinions, as silly people do empiric's pills, without
knowing what they are made of, or how they will work, and having nothing
to do but believe that they will do the cure: but in this are much
more miserable than they, in that they are not at liberty to refuse
swallowing what perhaps they had rather let alone; or to choose the
physician, to whose conduct they would trust themselves.
5. Second Cause of Error, Want of skill to use Proofs.
SECONDLY, Those who WANT SKILL TO USE THOSE EVIDENCES THEY HAVE OF
PROBABILITIES; who cannot carry a train of consequences in their heads;
nor weigh exactly the preponderancy of contrary proofs and testimonies,
making every circumstance its due allowance; may be easily misled to
assent to positions that are not probable. There are some men of one,
some but of two syllogisms, and no more; and others that can but advance
one step further. These cannot always discern that side on which the
strongest proofs lie; cannot constantly follow that which in itself is
the more probable opinion. Now that there is such a difference between
men, in respect of their understandings, I think nobody, who has had any
conversation with his neighbours, will question: though he never was at
Westminster-Hall or the Exchange on the one hand, nor at Alms-houses
or Bedlam on the other. Which great difference in men's intellectuals,
whether it rises from any defect in the organs of the body, particularly
adapted to thinking; or in the dulness or untractableness of those
faculties for want of use; or, as some think, in the natural differences
of men's souls themselves; or some, or all of these together; it matters
not here to examine: only this is evident, that there is a difference of
degrees in men's understandings, apprehensions, and reasonings, to so
great a latitude, that one may, without doing injury to mankind, affirm,
that there is a greater distance between some men and others in this
respect, than between some men and some beasts. But how this comes about
is a speculation, though of great consequence, yet not necessary to our
present purpose.
6. Third cause of Error, Want of Will to use them.
THIRDLY, There are another sort of people that want proofs, not because
they are out of their reach, but BECAUSE THEY WILL NOT USE THEM: who,
though they have riches and leisure enough, and want neither parts nor
learning, may yet, through their hot pursuit of pleasure, or business,
or else out of laziness or fear that the doctrines whose truth they
would inquire into would not suit well with their opinions, lives or
designs, may never come to the knowledge of, nor give their assent to,
those possibilities which lie so much within their view, that, to be
convinced of them, they need but turn their eyes that way. We know some
men will not read a letter which is supposed to bring ill news; and many
men forbear to cast up their accounts, or so much as think upon their
estates, who have reason to fear their affairs are in no very good
posture. How men, whose plentiful fortunes allow them leisure to improve
their understandings, can satisfy themselves with a lazy ignorance, I
cannot tell: but methinks they have a low opinion of their souls, who
lay out all their incomes in provisions for the body, and employ none of
it to procure the means and helps of knowledge; who take great care to
appear always in a neat and splendid outside, and would think themselves
miserable in coarse clothes, or a patched coat, and yet contentedly
suffer their minds to appear abroad in a piebald livery of coarse
patches and borrowed shreds, such as it has pleased chance, or their
country tailor (I mean the common opinion of those they have conversed
with) to clothe them in. I will not here mention how unreasonable this
is for men that ever think of a future state, and their concernment in
it, which no rational man can avoid to do sometimes: nor shall I take
notice what a shame and confusion it is to the greatest contemners of
knowledge, to be found ignorant in things they are concerned to
know. But this at least is worth the consideration of those who call
themselves gentlemen, That, however they may think credit, respect,
power, and authority the concomitants of their birth and fortune, yet
they will find all these still carried away from them by men of lower
condition, who surpass them in knowledge. They who are blind will
always be led by those that see, or else fall into the ditch: and he
is certainly the most subjected, the most enslaved, who is so in his
understanding. In the foregoing instances some of the causes have been
shown of wrong assent, and how it comes to pass, that probable doctrines
are not always received with an assent proportionable to the reasons
which are to be had for their probability: but hitherto we have
considered only such probabilities whose proofs do exist, but do not
appear to him who embraces the error.
7. Fourth cause of Error, Wrong Measures of Probability: which are--
FOURTHLY, There remains yet the last sort, who, even where the real
probabilities appear, and are plainly laid before them, do not admit
of the conviction, nor yield unto manifest reasons, but do either
suspend their assent, or give it to the less probable opinion. And
to this danger are those exposed who have taken up WRONG MEASURES OF
PROBABILITY, which are:
I. PROPOSITIONS THAT ARE IN THEMSELVES CERTAIN AND EVIDENT, BUT DOUBTFUL
AND FALSE, TAKEN UP FOR PRINCIPLES.
II. RECEIVED HYPOTHESES.
III. PREDOMINANT PASSIONS OR INCLINATIONS.
IV. AUTHORITY.
8. I. Doubtful Propositions taken for Principles.
The first and firmest ground of probability is the conformity anything
has to our own knowledge; especially that part of our knowledge which
we have embraced, and continue to look on as PRINCIPLES. These have so
great an influence upon our opinions, that it is usually by them we
judge of truth, and measure probability; to that degree, that what is
inconsistent with our principles, is so far from passing for probable
with us, that it will not be allowed possible. The reverence borne to
these principles is so great, and their authority so paramount to all
other, that the testimony, not only of other men, but the evidence of
our own senses are often rejected, when they offer to vouch anything
contrary to these established rules. How much the doctrine of INNATE
PRINCIPLES, and that principles are not to be proved or questioned, has
contributed to this, I will not here examine. This I readily grant, that
one truth cannot contradict another: but withal I take leave also to
say, that every one ought very carefully to beware what he admits for a
principle, to examine it strictly, and see whether he certainly knows it
to be true of itself, by its own evidence, or whether he does only with
assurance believe it to be so, upon the authority of others. For he
hath a strong bias put into his understanding, which will unavoidably
misguide his assent, who hath imbibed WRONG PRINCIPLES, and has blindly
given himself up to the authority of any opinion in itself not evidently
true.
9. Instilled in childhood.
There is nothing more ordinary than children's receiving into their
minds propositions (especially about matters of religion) from their
parents, nurses, or those about them: which being insinuated into their
unwary as well as unbiassed understandings, and fastened by degrees, are
at last (equally whether true or false) riveted there by long custom and
education, beyond all possibility of being pulled out again. For men,
when they are grown up, reflecting upon their opinions, and finding
those of this sort to be as ancient in their minds as their very
memories, not having observed their early insinuation, nor by what means
they got them, they are apt to reverence them as sacred things, and not
to suffer them to be profaned, touched, or questioned: they look on
them as the Urim and Thummim set up in their minds immediately by God
himself, to be the great and unerring deciders of truth and falsehood,
and the judges to which they are to appeal in all manner of
controversies.
10. Of irresistible efficacy.
This opinion of his principles (let them be what they will) being once
established in any one's mind, it is easy to be imagined what reception
any proposition shall find, how clearly soever proved, that shall
invalidate their authority, or at all thwart with these internal
oracles; whereas the grossest absurdities and improbabilities, being but
agreeable to such principles, go down glibly, and are easily digested.
The great obstinacy that is to be found in men firmly believing quite
contrary opinions, though many times equally absurd, in the various
religions of mankind, are as evident a proof as they are an unavoidable
consequence of this way of reasoning from received traditional
principles. So that men will disbelieve their own eyes, renounce the
evidence of their senses, and give their own experience the lie, rather
than admit of anything disagreeing with these sacred tenets. Take an
intelligent Romanist that, from the first dawning of any notions in his
understanding, hath had this principle constantly inculcated, viz. that
he must believe as the church (i.e. those of his communion) believes,
or that the pope is infallible, and this he never so much as heard
questioned, till at forty or fifty years old he met with one of other
principles: how is he prepared easily to swallow, not only against all
probability, but even the clear evidence of his senses, the doctrine of
TRANSUBSTANTIATION? This principle has such an influence on his mind,
that he will believe that to be flesh which he sees to be bread. And
what way will you take to convince a man of any improbable opinion he
holds, who, with some philosophers, hath laid down this as a foundation
of reasoning, That he must believe his reason (for so men improperly
call arguments drawn from their principles) against his senses? Let an
enthusiast be principled that he or his teacher is inspired, and acted
by an immediate communication of the Divine Spirit, and you in vain
bring the evidence of clear reasons against his doctrine. Whoever,
therefore, have imbibed wrong principles, are not, in things
inconsistent with these principles, to be moved by the most apparent
and convincing probabilities, till they are so candid and ingenuous to
themselves, as to be persuaded to examine even those very principles,
which many never suffer themselves to do.
11. Received Hypotheses.
Next to these are men whose understandings are cast into a mould, and
fashioned just to the size of a received HYPOTHESIS. The difference
between these and the former, is, that they will admit of matter of
fact, and agree with dissenters in that; but differ only in assigning of
reasons and explaining the manner of operation. These are not at that
open defiance with their senses, with the former: they can endure to
hearken to their information a little more patiently; but will by no
means admit of their reports in the explanation of things; nor be
prevailed on by probabilities, which would convince them that things
are not brought about just after the same manner that they have decreed
within themselves that they are. Would it not be an insufferable thing
for a learned professor, and that which his scarlet would blush at, to
have his authority of forty years standing, wrought out of hard rock,
Greek and Latin, with no small expense of time and candle, and confirmed
by general tradition and a reverend beard, in an instant overturned
by an upstart novelist? Can any one expect that he should be made to
confess, that what he taught his scholars thirty years ago was all error
and mistake; and that he sold them hard words and ignorance at a very
dear rate. What probabilities, I say, are sufficient to prevail in such
a case? And who ever, by the most cogent arguments, will be prevailed
with to disrobe himself at once of all his old opinions, and pretences
to knowledge and learning, which with hard study he hath all this time
been labouring for; and turn himself out stark naked, in quest afresh of
new notions? All the arguments that can be used will be as little able
to prevail, as the wind did with the traveller to part with his cloak,
which he held only the faster. To this of wrong hypothesis may be
reduced the errors that may be occasioned by a true hypothesis, or right
principles, but not rightly understood. There is nothing more familiar
than this. The instances of men contending for different opinions, which
they all derive from the infallible truth of the Scripture, are an
undeniable proof of it. All that call themselves Christians, allow the
text that says,[word in Greek], to carry in it the obligation to a very
weighty duty. But yet how very erroneous will one of their practices
be, who, understanding nothing but the French, take this rule with one
translation to be, REPENTEZ-VOUS, repent; or with the other, FATIEZ
PENITENCE, do penance.
12. III. Predominant Passions.
Probabilities which cross men's appetites and prevailing passions run
the same fate. Let ever so much probability hang on one side of a
covetous man's reasoning, and money on the other; it is easy to foresee
which will outweigh. Earthly minds, like mud walls, resist the strongest
batteries: and though, perhaps, sometimes the force of a clear argument
may make some impression, yet they nevertheless stand firm, and keep
out the enemy, truth, that would captivate or disturb them. Tell a man
passionately in love, that he is jilted; bring a score of witnesses of
the falsehood of his mistress, it is ten to one but three kind words
of hers shall invalidate all their testimonies. QUOD VOLUMUS, FACILE
CREDIMUS; what suits our wishes, is forwardly believed, is, I suppose,
what every one hath more than once experimented: and though men cannot
always openly gainsay or resist the force of manifest probabilities that
make against them, yet yield they not to the argument. Not but that it
is the nature of the understanding constantly to close with the more
probable side; but yet a man hath a power to suspend and restrain its
inquiries, and not permit a full and satisfactory examination, as far as
the matter in question is capable, and will bear it to be made. Until
that be done, there will be always these two ways left of evading the
most apparent probabilities:
13. Two Means of evading Probabilities: 1. Supposed Fallacy latent in
the words employed.
First, That the arguments being (as for the most part they are) brought
in words, THERE MAY BE A FALLACY LATENT IN THEM: and the consequences
being, perhaps, many in train, they may be some of them incoherent.
There are very few discourses so short, clear, and consistent, to which
most men may not, with satisfaction enough to themselves, raise this
doubt; and from whose conviction they may not, without reproach of
disingenuity or unreasonableness, set themselves free with the old
reply, Non persuadebis, etiamsi persuaseris; though I cannot answer, I
will not yield.
14. Supposed unknown Arguments for the contrary.
Secondly, Manifest probabilities maybe evaded, and the assent withheld,
upon this suggestion, That I know not yet all that may be said on the
contrary side. And therefore, though I be beaten, it is not necessary I
should yield, not knowing what forces there are in reserve behind. This
is a refuge against conviction so open and so wide, that it is hard to
determine when a man is quite out of the verge of it.
15. What Probabilities naturally determine the Assent.
But yet there is some end of it; and a man having carefully inquired
into all the grounds of probability and unlikeliness; done his utmost to
inform himself in all particulars fairly, and cast up the sum total on
both sides; may, in most cases, come to acknowledge, upon the whole
matter, on which side the probability rests: wherein some proofs in
matter of reason, being suppositions upon universal experience, are so
cogent and clear, and some testimonies in matter of fact so universal,
that he cannot refuse his assent. So that I think we may conclude, that,
in propositions, where though the proofs in view are of most moment, yet
there are sufficient grounds to suspect that there is either fallacy in
words, or certain proofs as considerable to be produced on the contrary
side; there assent, suspense, or dissent, are often voluntary actions.
But where the proofs are such as make it highly probable, and there is
not sufficient ground to suspect that there is either fallacy of words
(which sober and serious consideration may discover) nor equally valid
proofs yet undiscovered, latent on the other side (which also the nature
of the thing may, in some cases, make plain to a considerate man;)
there, I think, a man who has weighed them can scarce refuse his assent
to the side on which the greater probability appears. Whether it be
probable that a promiscuous jumble of printing letters should often
fall into a method and order, which should stamp on paper a coherent
discourse; or that a blind fortuitous concourse of atoms, not guided by
an understanding agent, should frequently constitute the bodies of any
species of animals: in these and the like cases, I think, nobody that
considers them can be one jot at a stand which side to take, nor at all
waver in his assent. Lastly, when there can be no supposition (the thing
in its own nature indifferent, and wholly depending upon the testimony
of witnesses) that there is as fair testimony against, as for the matter
of fact attested; which by inquiry is to be learned, v.g. whether there
was one thousand seven hundred years ago such a man at Rome as Julius
Caesar: in all such cases, I say, I think it is not in any rational
man's power to refuse his assent; but that it necessarily follows, and
closes with such probabilities. In other less clear cases, I think it is
in man's power to suspend his assent; and perhaps content himself with
the proofs he has, if they favour the opinion that suits with his
inclination or interest, and so stop from further search. But that a
man should afford his assent to that side on which the less probability
appears to him, seems to me utterly impracticable, and as impossible
as it is to believe the same thing probable and improbable at the same
time.
16. Where it is in our Power to suspend our Judgment.
As knowledge is no more arbitrary than perception; so, I think, assent
is no more in our power than knowledge. When the agreement of any two
ideas appears to our minds, whether immediately or by the assistance of
reason, I can no more refuse to perceive, no more avoid knowing it, than
I can avoid seeing those objects which I turn my eyes to, and look on
in daylight; and what upon full examination I find the most probable, I
cannot deny my assent to. But, though we cannot hinder our knowledge,
where the agreement is once perceived; nor our assent, where the
probability manifestly appears upon due consideration of all the
measures of it: yet we can hinder both KNOWLEDGE and ASSENT, BY STOPPING
OUR INQUIRY, and not employing our faculties in the search of any truth.
If it were not so, ignorance, error, or infidelity, could not in any
case be a fault. Thus, in some cases we can prevent or suspend our
assent: but can a man versed in modern or ancient history doubt whether
there is such a place as Rome, or whether there was such a man as Julius
Caesar? Indeed, there are millions of truths that a man is not, or may
not think himself concerned to know; as whether our king Richard the
Third was crooked or no; or whether Roger Bacon was a mathematician or
a magician. In these and such like cases, where the assent one way or
other is of no importance to the interest of any one; no action, no
concernment of his following or depending thereon, there it is not
strange that the mind should give itself up to the common opinion, or
render itself to the first comer. These and the like opinions are of so
little weight and moment, that, like motes in the sun, their tendencies
are very rarely taken notice of. They are there, as it were, by chance,
and the mind lets them float at liberty. But where the mind judges that
the proposition has concernment in it: where the assent or not assenting
is thought to draw consequences of moment after it, and good and evil to
depend on choosing or refusing the right side, and the mind sets itself
seriously to inquire and examine the probability: there I think it is
not in our choice to take which side we please, if manifest odds appear
on either. The greater probability, I think, in that case will determine
the assent: and a man can no more avoid assenting, or taking it to be
true, where he perceives the greater probability, than he can avoid
knowing it to be true, where he perceives the agreement or disagreement
of any two ideas.