Why We Are At War (2nd Edition, revised) - Members of the Oxford Faculty of Modern History
Secretary of State said that a reassuring feature of situation was that
Count Berchtold had sent for Russian representative at Vienna and had
told him that Austria-Hungary had no intention of seizing Servian
territory. This step should, in his opinion, exercise a calming
influence at St. Petersburgh. I asked whether it was not to be feared
that, in taking military action against Servia, Austria would
dangerously excite public opinion in Russia. He said he thought not. He
remained of opinion that crisis could be localised. I said that
telegrams from Russia in this morning's papers did not look very
reassuring, but he maintained his optimistic view with regard to Russia.
He said that he had given the Russian Government to understand that last
thing Germany wanted was a general war, and he would do all in his power
to prevent such a calamity. If the relations between Austria and Russia
became threatening, he was quite ready to fall in with your suggestion
as to the four Powers working in favour of moderation at Vienna and St.
Petersburgh.
Secretary of State confessed privately that he thought the note left
much to be desired as a diplomatic document. He repeated very earnestly
that, though he had been accused of knowing all about the contents of
that note, he had in fact had no such knowledge.
No. 41.
_Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 27.)_
(Telegraphic.) _Vienna, July_ 27, 1914.
I have had conversations with all my colleagues representing the Great
Powers. The impression left on my mind is that the Austro-Hungarian note
was so drawn up as to make war inevitable; that the Austro-Hungarian
Government are fully resolved to have war with Servia; that they
consider their position as a Great Power to be at stake; and that until
punishment has been administered to Servia it is unlikely that they will
listen to proposals of mediation. This country has gone wild with joy at
the prospect of war with Servia, and its postponement or prevention
would undoubtedly be a great disappointment.
I propose, subject to any special directions you desire to send me, to
express to the Austrian Minister for Foreign Affairs the hope of His
Majesty's Government that it may yet be possible to avoid war, and to
ask his Excellency whether he cannot suggest a way out even now.
No. 43.
_Sir E. Goschen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 27.)_
(Telegraphic.) _Berlin, July_ 27, 1914.
Your telegram of 26th July.
Secretary of State says that conference you suggest would practically
amount to a court of arbitration and could not, in his opinion, be
called together except at the request of Austria and Russia. He could
not therefore fall in with your suggestion, desirous though he was to
co-operate for the maintenance of peace. I said I was sure that your
idea had nothing to do with arbitration, but meant that representatives
of the four nations not directly interested should discuss and suggest
means for avoiding a dangerous situation. He maintained, however, that
such a conference as you proposed was not practicable. He added that
news he had just received from St. Petersburgh showed that there was an
intention on the part of M. de Sazonof to exchange views with Count
Berchtold. He thought that this method of procedure might lead to a
satisfactory result, and that it would be best, before doing anything
else, to await outcome of the exchange of views between the Austrian and
Russian Governments.
In the course of a short conversation Secretary of State said that as
yet Austria was only partially mobilising, but that if Russia mobilised
against Germany latter would have to follow suit. I asked him what he
meant by "mobilising against Germany." He said that if Russia only
mobilised in south, Germany would not mobilise, but if she mobilised in
north, Germany would have to do so too, and Russian system of
mobilisation was so complicated that it might be difficult exactly to
locate her mobilisation. Germany would therefore have to be very careful
not to be taken by surprise.
Finally, Secretary of State said that news from St. Petersburgh had
caused him to take more hopeful view of the general situation.
No. 56.
_Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 28.)_
(Telegraphic.) _Vienna, July_ 27, 1914.
The Russian Ambassador had to-day a long and earnest conversation with
Baron Macchio, the Under-secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. He told
him that, having just come back from St. Petersburgh, he was well
acquainted with the views of the Russian Government and the state of
Russian public opinion. He could assure him that if actual war broke out
with Servia it would be impossible to localise it, for Russia was not
prepared to give way again, as she had done on previous occasions, and
especially during the annexation crisis of 1909. He earnestly hoped that
something would be done before Servia was actually invaded. Baron
Macchio replied that this would now be difficult, as a skirmish had
already taken place on the Danube, in which the Servians had been the
aggressors. The Russian Ambassador said that he would do all he could to
keep the Servians quiet pending any discussions that might yet take
place, and he told me that he would advise his Government to induce the
Servian Government to avoid any conflict as long as possible, and to
fall back before an Austrian advance. Time so gained should suffice to
enable a settlement to be reached. He had just heard of a satisfactory
conversation which the Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs had
yesterday with the Austrian Ambassador at St. Petersburgh. The former
had agreed that much of the Austro-Hungarian note to Servia had been
perfectly reasonable, and in fact they had practically reached an
understanding as to the guarantees which Servia might reasonably be
asked to give to Austria-Hungary for her future good behaviour. The
Russian Ambassador urged that the Austrian Ambassador at St. Petersburgh
should be furnished with full powers to continue discussion with the
Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs, who was very willing to advise
Servia to yield all that could be fairly asked of her as an independent
Power. Baron Macchio promised to submit this suggestion to the Minister
for Foreign Affairs.
No. 62.
_Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 28.)_
(Telegraphic.) _Vienna, July 28_, 1914.
I spoke to Minister for Foreign Affairs to-day in the sense of your
telegram of 27th July to Berlin. I avoided the word "mediation," but
said that, as mentioned in your speech,[187] which he had just read to
me, you had hopes that conversations in London between the four Powers
less interested might yet lead to an arrangement which Austro-Hungarian
Government would accept as satisfactory and as rendering actual
hostilities unnecessary. I added that you had regarded Servian reply as
having gone far to meet just demands of Austria-Hungary; that you
thought it constituted a fair basis of discussion during which warlike
operations might remain in abeyance, and that Austrian Ambassador in
Berlin was speaking in this sense. Minister for Foreign Affairs said
quietly, but firmly, that no discussion could be accepted on basis of
Servian note; that war would be declared to-day, and that well-known
pacific character of Emperor, as well as, he might add, his own, might
be accepted as a guarantee that war was both just and inevitable. This
was a matter that must be settled directly between the two parties
immediately concerned. I said that you would hear with regret that
hostilities could not now be arrested, as you feared that they might
lead to complications threatening the peace of Europe.
In taking leave of his Excellency, I begged him to believe that, if in
the course of present grave crisis our point of view should sometimes
differ from his, this would arise, not from want of sympathy with the
many just complaints which Austria-Hungary had against Servia, but from
the fact that, whereas Austria-Hungary put first her quarrel with
Servia, you were anxious in the first instance for peace of Europe. I
trusted this larger aspect of the question would appeal with equal force
to his Excellency. He said he had it also in mind, but thought that
Russia ought not to oppose operations like those impending, which did
not aim at territorial aggrandisement and which could no longer be
postponed.
[Footnote 187: "Hansard," Vol. 65, No. 107, Columns 931, 932, 933.]
No. 85.
_Sir E. Goschen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 29.)_
(Telegraphic.) _Berlin, July_ 29, 1914.
I was asked to call upon the Chancellor to-night. His Excellency had
just returned from Potsdam.
He said that should Austria be attacked by Russia a European
conflagration might, he feared, become inevitable, owing to Germany's
obligations as Austria's ally, in spite of his continued efforts to
maintain peace. He then proceeded to make the following strong bid for
British neutrality. He said that it was clear, so far as he was able to
judge the main principle which governed British policy, that Great
Britain would never stand by and allow France to be crushed in any
conflict there might be. That, however, was not the object at which
Germany aimed. Provided that neutrality of Great Britain were certain,
every assurance would be given to the British Government that the
Imperial Government aimed at no territorial acquisitions at the expense
of France should they prove victorious in any war that might ensue.
I questioned his Excellency about the French colonies, and he said that
he was unable to give a similar undertaking in that respect. As regards
Holland, however, his Excellency said that, so long as Germany's
adversaries respected the integrity and neutrality of the Netherlands,
Germany was ready to give His Majesty's Government an assurance that she
would do likewise. It depended upon the action of France what operations
Germany might be forced to enter upon in Belgium, but when the war was
over, Belgian integrity would be respected if she had not sided against
Germany.
His Excellency ended by saying that ever since he had been Chancellor
the object of his policy had been, as you were aware, to bring about an
understanding with England; he trusted that these assurances might form
the basis of that understanding which he so much desired. He had in mind
a general neutrality agreement between England and Germany, though it
was of course at the present moment too early to discuss details, and an
assurance of British neutrality in the conflict which present crisis
might possibly produce, would enable him to look forward to realisation
of his desire.
In reply to his Excellency's enquiry how I thought his request would
appeal to you, I said that I did not think it probable that at this
stage of events you would care to bind yourself to any course of action
and that I was of opinion that you would desire to retain full liberty.
Our conversation upon this subject having come to an end, I communicated
the contents of your telegram of to-day to his Excellency, who expressed
his best thanks to you.
No. 87.
_Sir Edward Grey to Sir F. Bertie_.
Sir, _Foreign Office, July_ 29, 1914.
After telling M. Cambon to-day how grave the situation seemed to be, I
told him that I meant to tell the German Ambassador to-day that he must
not be misled by the friendly tone of our conversations into any sense
of false security that we should stand aside if all the efforts to
preserve the peace, which we were now making in common with Germany,
failed. But I went on to say to M. Cambon that I thought it necessary to
tell him also that public opinion here approached the present difficulty
from a quite different point of view from that taken during the
difficulty as to Morocco a few years ago. In the case of Morocco the
dispute was one in which France was primarily interested, and in which
it appeared that Germany, in an attempt to crush France, was fastening a
quarrel on France on a question that was the subject of a special
agreement between France and us. In the present case the dispute between
Austria and Servia was not one in which we felt called to take a hand.
Even if the question became one between Austria and Russia we should not
feel called upon to take a hand in it. It would then be a question of
the supremacy of Teuton or Slav--a struggle for supremacy in the
Balkans; and our idea had always been to avoid being drawn into a war
over a Balkan question. If Germany became involved and France became
involved, we had not made up our minds what we should do; it was a case
that we should have to consider. France would then have been drawn into
a quarrel which was not hers, but in which, owing to her alliance, her
honour and interest obliged her to engage. We were free from
engagements, and we should have to decide what British interests
required us to do. I thought it necessary to say that, because, as he
knew, we were taking all precautions with regard to our fleet, and I was
about to warn Prince Lichnowsky not to count on our standing aside, but
it would not be fair that I should let M. Cambon be misled into
supposing that this meant that we had decided what to do in a
contingency that I still hoped might not arise.
M. Cambon said that I had explained the situation very clearly. He
understood it to be that in a Balkan quarrel, and in a struggle for
supremacy between Teuton and Slav we should not feel called to
intervene; should other issues be raised, and Germany and France become
involved, so that the question became one of the hegemony of Europe, we
should then decide what it was necessary for us to do. He seemed quite
prepared for this announcement, and made no criticism upon it.
He said French opinion was calm, but decided. He anticipated a demand
from Germany that France would be neutral while Germany attacked Russia.
This assurance France, of course, could not give; she was bound to help
Russia if Russia was attacked.
I am, &c.
E. GREY.
No. 89.
_Sir Edward Grey to Sir E. Goschen_.
Sir, _Foreign Office, July_ 29, 1914.
After speaking to the German Ambassador this afternoon about the
European situation, I said that I wished to say to him, in a quite
private and friendly way, something that was on my mind. The situation
was very grave. While it was restricted to the issues at present
actually involved we had no thought of interfering in it. But if Germany
became involved in it, and then France, the issue might be so great that
it would involve all European interests; and I did not wish him to be
misled by the friendly tone of our conversation--which I hoped would
continue--into thinking that we should stand aside.
He said that he quite understood this, but he asked whether I meant that
we should, under certain circumstances, intervene?
I replied that I did not wish to say that, or to use anything that was
like a threat or an attempt to apply pressure by saying that, if things
became worse, we should intervene. There would be no question of our
intervening if Germany was not involved, or even if France was not
involved. But we knew very well that, if the issue did become such that
we thought British interests required us to intervene, we must intervene
at once, and the decision would have to be very rapid, just as the
decisions of other Powers had to be. I hoped that the friendly tone of
our conversations would continue as at present, and that I should be
able to keep as closely in touch with the German Government in working
for peace. But if we failed in our efforts to keep the peace, and if the
issue spread so that it involved practically every European interest, I
did not wish to be open to any reproach from him that the friendly tone
of all our conversations had misled him or his Government into supposing
that we should not take action, and to the reproach that, if they had
not been so misled, the course of things might have been different.
The German Ambassador took no exception to what I had said; indeed, he
told me that it accorded with what he had already given in Berlin as his
view of the situation.
I am, &c.
E. GREY.
No. 98.
_Sir E. Goschen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 30.)_
(Telegraphic.) _Berlin, July_ 30, 1914.
Secretary of State informs me that immediately on receipt of Prince
Lichnowsky's telegram recording his last conversation with you he asked
Austro-Hungarian Government whether they would be willing to accept
mediation on basis of occupation by Austrian troops of Belgrade or some
other point and issue their conditions from there. He has up till now
received no reply, but he fears Russian mobilisation against Austria
will have increased difficulties, as Austria-Hungary, who has as yet
only mobilised against Servia, will probably find it necessary also
against Russia. Secretary of State says if you can succeed in getting
Russia to agree to above basis for an arrangement and in persuading her
in the meantime to take no steps which might be regarded as an act of
aggression against Austria he still sees some chance that European peace
may be preserved.
He begged me to impress on you difficulty of Germany's position in view
of Russian mobilisation and military measures which he hears are being
taken in France. Beyond recall of officers on leave--a measure which had
been officially taken after, and not before, visit of French Ambassador
yesterday--Imperial Government had done nothing special in way of
military preparations. Something, however, would have soon to be done,
for it might be too late, and when they mobilised they would have to
mobilise on three sides. He regretted this, as he knew France did not
desire war, but it would be a military necessity.
His Excellency added that telegram received from Prince Lichnowsky last
night contains matter which he had heard with regret, but not exactly
with surprise, and at all events he thoroughly appreciated frankness and
loyalty with which you had spoken.
He also told me that this telegram had only reached Berlin very late
last night; had it been received earlier Chancellor would, of course,
not have spoken to me in way he had done.
No. 101.
_Sir Edward Grey to Sir E. Goschen_.
(Telegraphic.) _Foreign Office, July_ 30, 1914.
Your telegram of 29th July.[188]
His Majesty's Government cannot for a moment entertain the Chancellor's
proposal that they should bind themselves to neutrality on such terms.
What he asks us in effect is to engage to stand by while French colonies
are taken and France is beaten so long as Germany does not take French
territory as distinct from the colonies.
From the material point of view such a proposal is unacceptable, for
France, without further territory in Europe being taken from her, could
be so crushed as to lose her position as a Great Power, and become
subordinate to German policy.
Altogether, apart from that, it would be a disgrace for us to make this
bargain with Germany at the expense of France, a disgrace from which the
good name of this country would never recover.
The Chancellor also in effect asks us to bargain away whatever
obligation or interest we have as regards the neutrality of Belgium. We
could not entertain that bargain either.
Having said so much, it is unnecessary to examine whether the prospect
of a future general neutrality agreement between England and Germany
offered positive advantages sufficient to compensate us for tying our
hands now. We must preserve our full freedom to act as circumstances may
seem to us to require in any such unfavourable and regrettable
development of the present crisis as the Chancellor contemplates.
You should speak to the Chancellor in the above sense, and add most
earnestly that the one way of maintaining the good relations between
England and Germany is that they should continue to work together to
preserve the peace of Europe; if we succeed in this object, the mutual
relations of Germany and England will, I believe, be _ipso facto_
improved and strengthened. For that object His Majesty's Government will
work in that way with all sincerity and good-will.
And I will say this: If the peace of Europe can be preserved, and the
present crisis safely passed, my own endeavour will be to promote some
arrangement to which Germany could be a party, by which she could be
assured that no aggressive or hostile policy would be pursued against
her or her allies by France, Russia, and ourselves, jointly or
separately. I have desired this and worked for it, as far as I could,
through the last Balkan crisis, and, Germany having a corresponding
object, our relations sensibly improved. The idea has hitherto been too
Utopian to form the subject of definite proposals, but if this present
crisis, so much more acute than any that Europe has gone through for
generations, be safely passed, I am hopeful that the relief and reaction
which will follow may make possible some more definite rapprochement
between the Powers than has been possible hitherto.
[Footnote 188: See No. 85.]
Enclosure 1 in No. 105.
_Sir Edward Grey to M. Cambon_.
My dear Ambassador, _Foreign Office, November 22_, 1912.
From time to time in recent years the French and British naval and
military experts have consulted together. It has always been understood
that such consultation does not restrict the freedom of either
Government to decide at any future time whether or not to assist the
other by armed force. We have agreed that consultation between experts
is not, and ought not to be regarded as, an engagement that commits
either Government to action in a contingency that has not arisen and may
never arise. The disposition, for instance, of the French and British
fleets respectively at the present moment is not based upon an
engagement to co-operate in war.
You have, however, pointed out that, if either Government had grave
reason to expect an unprovoked attack by a third Power, it might become
essential to know whether it could in that event depend upon the armed
assistance of the other.
I agree that, if either Government had grave reason to expect an
unprovoked attack by a third Power, or something that threatened the
general peace, it should immediately discuss with the other whether both
Governments should act together to prevent aggression and to preserve
peace, and, if so, what measures they would be prepared to take in
common. If these measures involved action, the plans of the General
Staffs would at once be taken into consideration, and the Governments
would then decide what effect should be given to them.
Yours, &c.
E. GREY.
No. 119.
_Sir Edward Grey to Sir F. Bertie_.
Sir, _Foreign Office, July_ 31, 1914.
M. Cambon referred to-day to a telegram that had been shown to Sir
Arthur Nicolson this morning from the French Ambassador in Berlin,
saying that it was the uncertainty with regard to whether we would
intervene which was the encouraging element in Berlin, and that, it we
would only declare definitely on the side of Russia and France, it would
decide the German attitude in favour of peace.
I said that it was quite wrong to suppose that we had left Germany under
the impression that we would not intervene. I had refused overtures to
promise that we should remain neutral. I had not only definitely
declined to say that we would remain neutral, I had even gone so far
this morning as to say to the German Ambassador that, if France and
Germany became involved in war, we should be drawn into it. That, of
course, was not the same thing as taking an engagement to France, and I
told M. Cambon of it only to show that we had not left Germany under the
impression that we would stand aside.
M. Cambon then asked me for my reply to what he had said yesterday.
I said that we had come to the conclusion, in the Cabinet to-day, that
we could not give any pledge at the present time. Though we should have
to put our policy before Parliament, we could not pledge Parliament in
advance. Up to the present moment, we did not feel, and public opinion
did not feel, that any treaties or obligations of this country were
involved. Further developments might alter this situation and cause the
Government and Parliament to take the view that intervention was
justified. The preservation of the neutrality of Belgium might be, I
would not say a decisive, but an important factor, in determining our
attitude. Whether we proposed to Parliament to intervene or not to
intervene in a war, Parliament would wish to know how we stood with
regard to the neutrality of Belgium, and it might be that I should ask
both France and Germany whether each was prepared to undertake an
engagement that she would not be the first to violate the neutrality of
Belgium.
M. Cambon repeated his question whether we would help France if Germany
made an attack on her.