Why We Are At War (2nd Edition, revised) - Members of the Oxford Faculty of Modern History
Russia persisted that Germany was the real obstacle to a friendly
settlement; and this conviction was not affected by the appeals for
peace which the Kaiser telegraphed to the Tsar on July 28, July 29, and
July 31.[40] On July 29 Germany told England that the Russian
mobilization was alarming, and that France was also making military
preparations;[41] at the same time Germany threatened to proclaim
'imminent state of war' (_drohende Kriegsgefahr_) as a counter measure
to the French preparations;[42] German military preparations, by July
30, had in fact gone far beyond the preliminary stage which she thus
indicated.[43] Germany had already warned England, France, and Russia
that, if Russia mobilized, this would mean German mobilization against
both France and Russia.[44] But on July 27, Russia had explained that
her mobilization would in no sense be directed against Germany, and
would only take place if Austrian forces crossed the Servian
frontier.[45] On July 29, the day on which Russia actually mobilized the
southern districts, Russia once more asked Germany to participate in the
'quadruple conference' now proposed by England, for the purpose of
mediating between Austria and Servia. This proposal was declined by the
German Ambassador at St. Petersburg.[46] Germany in fact believed, or
professed to believe, that the Russian mobilization, though not
proclaimed, was already far advanced.[47]
On July 30 Austria, although her conversations with Russia were still in
progress, began the bombardment of Belgrade. The next day, July 31,
Russia ordered general mobilization; on August 1 France and Germany each
took the like step; Germany presented an ultimatum to Russia, demanding
that Russian mobilization should cease, and another ultimatum to France
asking what course she would take in the event of war between Germany
and Russia.
Before these decisive steps of July 30-August 1, and while Sir Edward
Grey was still engaged in efforts of mediation, Germany made overtures
to England, with the object of securing England's neutrality in the
event of a war between Germany and France. On July 29 Germany offered,
as the price of English neutrality, to give assurances that, if
victorious, she would make no territorial acquisitions at the expense of
France; but refused to give a similar assurance respecting French
colonies, or to promise to respect Belgian neutrality.[48] These
proposals were refused by England on July 30.[49] On August 1 the German
Ambassador unofficially asked England to remain neutral on condition
that Germany would not violate Belgian neutrality. Sir Edward Grey
replied that England's hands were still free, and that he could not
promise neutrality on that condition alone.[50]
Meanwhile, on July 30, Sir Edward Grey was told by France that she would
not remain neutral in a war between Germany and Russia.[51] On July 31
the English Cabinet, being asked by France to declare definitely on her
side, replied that England could give no pledge at present.[52] On the
same day England asked France and Germany to engage to respect Belgian
neutrality. France assented, Germany evaded giving a reply.[53] But, on
August 2, German forces entered the neutral state of Luxemburg; and
England promised to defend the French coasts and shipping if attacked by
the German fleet in the Channel, or through the North Sea.[54] On August
4 the King of the Belgians telegraphed to King George announcing that
Germany had demanded passage for her troops through Belgian territory,
and appealing to England for help.[55] On the same day, August 4,
England sent an ultimatum to Germany asking for assurance, before
midnight, that Germany would respect Belgian neutrality.[56] This demand
was taken at Berlin as equivalent to a declaration of war by England
against Germany.
DIARY OF THE EVENTS LEADING TO THE WAR
June 28. Assassination at Sarajevo of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand and
the Duchess of Hohenberg.
July 6. The Kaiser leaves Kiel for a cruise in Northern waters.
July 9. Results of Austro-Hungarian investigation into the Servian crime
laid before the Emperor.
July 13, 14. Serious disclosures about condition of French army.
July 13, 14, 15, 16. Heavy selling of Canadian Pacific Railway Shares,
especially by Berlin operators.
July 16. Count Tisza, the Hungarian Premier, speaking in the Hungarian
Chamber, describes war as a sad _ultima ratio_, 'but every state and
nation must be able and willing to make war if it wishes to exist as a
state and a nation.'
The _Times_ leading article 'Austria-Hungary and Servia' is commented on
in Berlin as an 'English warning to Servia.'
July 19. The King summons a conference to discuss the Home-Rule problem.
July 21. The _Frankfurter Zeitung_ warns Austria-Hungary of the folly of
its campaign against Servia.
July 23. Thursday. Austria presents her Note to Servia giving her 48
hours in which to accept.
July 24. Friday. Russian Cabinet Council held. The Austro-Hungarian
demands considered as an indirect challenge to Russia.--Strike at St.
Petersburg.
Failure of the conference on Home Rule.
July 25. Saturday. Servian reply; considered unsatisfactory by
Austria-Hungary, whose Minister and Legation-staff leave Belgrade.
Russian Ambassador at Vienna instructed to request extension of
time-limit allowed to Servia.
Sir E. Grey suggests that the four other Powers should mediate at Vienna
and St. Petersburg.--Serious riot in Dublin.
July 26. Sunday. Sir E. Grey proposes that the French, Italian, and
German Ambassadors should meet him in conference immediately for the
purpose of discovering an issue which would prevent complications.
Partial mobilization of Austro-Hungarian army ordered.
Russian Foreign Minister warns German Ambassador that Russia cannot
remain indifferent to the fate of Servia.
Sir E. Goschen says the Kaiser is returning to-night.
July 27. Monday. France and Italy accept proposal of a conference.
German Secretary of State refuses the proposal of a 'conference.'
Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs proposes direct conversation
between Vienna and St. Petersburg.
British Fleet kept assembled after manoeuvres.
Sir E. Grey in the House of Commons makes a statement concerning the
attitude of Great Britain.
The _Times_ Berlin correspondent reports that the Kaiser returned this
afternoon from Kiel to Potsdam.
July 28. Tuesday. Austria-Hungary declares war on Servia.
Russia says the key of the situation is to be found at Berlin.
Austria declines any suggestion of negotiations on basis of the Servian
reply.
The Kaiser telegraphs to the Tsar.
July 29. Wednesday. Russian mobilization in the four military districts
of Odessa, Kiev, Moscow, and Kazan.
Germany offers, in return for British neutrality, to promise territorial
integrity of France, but will not extend the same assurance for French
colonies.
Sir E. Grey warns the German Ambassador that we should not necessarily
stand aside, if all the efforts to maintain the peace failed.
Austria at last realizes that Russia will not remain indifferent.
The Tsar telegraphs to the Kaiser; the latter replies.
July 30. Thursday. Bombardment of Belgrade by Austro-Hungarian forces.
The Prime Minister speaks in the House of Commons on the gravity of the
situation, and postpones discussion of the Home Rule Amending Bill.
The Tsar telegraphs to the Kaiser.
July 31. Friday. General Russian mobilization ordered.
Sir E. Grey asks France and Germany whether they will respect neutrality
of Belgium.
France promises to respect Belgian neutrality; Germany is doubtful
whether any answer will be returned to this request.
Austria declares its readiness to discuss the substance of its ultimatum
to Servia.
Fresh telegrams pass between the Kaiser and the Tsar.
Germany presents ultimatum to Russia demanding that her mobilization
should cease within 12 hours.
Germany presents an ultimatum to France asking her to define her
attitude in case of a Russo-German war.
English bankers confer with the Government about the financial
situation.
Aug. 1. Saturday. Sir E. Grey protests against detention of English
ships at Hamburg.
Orders issued for general mobilization of French army.
Orders issued for general mobilization of German army.
Aug. 2. Sunday. Germans invade Luxemburg.
Sir E. Grey gives France an assurance that the English fleet will
protect the North Coast of France against the German fleet.
Germans enter French territory near Cirey.
Aug. 3. Monday. Italy declares itself neutral, as the other members of
the Triple Alliance are not engaged in a defensive war.
Germany presents an ultimatum to Belgium.
Sir E. Grey makes an important speech in the House of Commons.
Aug. 4. Tuesday. Germans enter Belgian territory.
Britain presents an ultimatum to Germany demanding an answer by
midnight.
The Prime Minister makes a speech in the House of Commons, practically
announcing war against Germany and explaining the British position.
Aug. 6. Austria-Hungary declares war on Russia.
Aug. 11. The French Ambassador at Vienna demands his passport.
Aug. 12. Great Britain declares war on Austria-Hungary.
Notes:
[Footnote 25: Extracts are printed in the German version of the German
White Book (pp. 28-31) from an Austrian official publication of July 27.
We print the extracts (the original not being accessible in this
country) in Appendix IV.]
[Footnote 26: Full text _infra_ in Appendix I (German White Book, pp.
18-23); more correctly in _Correspondence respecting the European
Crisis_, No. 4, Count Berchtold to Count Mensdorff, July 24; but the
differences between the two versions are immaterial for our present
purpose.]
[Footnote 27: See the communication to England in _Correspondence_, No.
4.]
[Footnote 28: _Correspondence_, No. 9, Note communicated by the German
Ambassador, July 24.]
[Footnote 29: _Correspondence_, No. 6, Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey,
July 24.]
[Footnote 30: _Correspondence_, No. 13, Note communicated by Russian
Ambassador, July 25.]
[Footnote 31: _Correspondence_, No. 17, Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey,
July 25.]
[Footnote 32: For text of Servian note see _infra_ Appendix I (German
White Book, pp. 23-32). The Austrian comments also are given there.]
[Footnote 33: _Correspondence_, No. 42, Sir F. Bertie to Sir E. Grey,
July 27; _ibid_. No. 49, Sir E. Grey to Sir R. Rodd, July 27.]
[Footnote 34: _Correspondence_, No. 43. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
July 27.]
[Footnote 35: German White Book, p. 46 (_infra_ in Appendix I). The Tsar
to His Majesty, July 30.]
[Footnote 36: _Correspondence_, No. 45. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey.]
[Footnote 37: Austria declined conversations on July 28
(_Correspondence_, No. 93); but for conversations of July 31 see
_Correspondence_, No. III; of August I, see Appendix V.]
[Footnote 38: _Correspondence_, No. 70 (I). M. Sazonof to Russian
Ambassador at Berlin, July 28.]
[Footnote 39: _Correspondence_, No. 72. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey,
July 28.]
[Footnote 40: German White Book, pp. 43, 45 (in Appendix I, _infra_).]
[Footnote 41: _Correspondence_, No. 76. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
July 29.]
[Footnote 42: German White Book, p. 42, Exhibit 17 (_infra_, Appendix
I).]
[Footnote 43: _Correspondence_, No. 105 (Enclosure 3), July 30.]
[Footnote 44: German White Book, p. 7; the date of the warning seems to
be July 27.]
[Footnote 45: German White Book, p. 40, Exhibit II.]
[Footnote 46: _Ibid_. p. 9.]
[Footnote 47: _Ibid_. p. 10.]
[Footnote 48: _Correspondence_, No. 85. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
July 29.]
[Footnote 49: _Ibid_. No. 101. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, July 30.]
[Footnote 50: _Correspondence_, No. 123. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen,
Aug. 1.]
[Footnote 51: _Ibid_. No. 105. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 30.]
[Footnote 52: _Ibid_. No. 119. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 31.]
[Footnote 53: _Ibid_. No. 114, 120, 122.]
[Footnote 54: _Ibid_. No. 148. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, Aug. 2.]
[Footnote 55: _Ibid_. No. 153. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, Aug. 4.]
[Footnote 56: _Ibid_. No. 159. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, Aug. 4]
CHAPTER V
NEGOTIATORS AND NEGOTIATIONS
For purposes of reference the following list of _dramatis personae_ may
be useful:--
GREAT BRITAIN: King George V, _succ_. 1910.
_Foreign Secretary_: Sir Edward Grey.
_Ambassadors from France_: M. Paul Cambon.
_Russia_: Count Benckendorff.
_Germany_: Prince Lichnowsky.
_Austria_: Count Albert Mensdorff-Pouilly-Dietrichstein.
_Belgium_: Count A. de Lalaing (_Minister_).
RUSSIA: Emperor Nicholas II, _succ_. 1894.
_Foreign Secretary_: M. Sazonof.
_Ambassadors from Great Britain_: Sir George Buchanan.
_France_: M. Paleologue.
_Germany_: Count Pourtales.
_Austria_: Friedrich Count Szapary.
FRANCE: Raymond Poincare, _President, elected_ 1913.
_Premier_: M. Viviani.
_Acting Foreign Secretary_: M. Doumergue.
_Ambassadors from Great Britain_: Sir Francis Bertie.
_Russia_: M. Isvolsky.
M. Sevastopoulo (_Charge d'Affaires_).
_Germany_: Baron von Schoen.
_Austria_: Count Scezsen.
GERMANY: Emperor William II, _succ_. 1888.
_Imperial Chancellor_: Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg.
_Foreign Secretary_: Herr von Jagow.
_Ambassadors from Great Britain_: Sir Edward Goschen.
Sir Horace Rumbold (_Councillor_).
_Russia:_ M. Swerbeiev.
M. Bronewsky (_Charge d'Affaires_).
_France:_ M. Jules Cambon.
_Austria_: Count Ladislaus Szoegyeny-Marich.
AUSTRIA-HUNGARY: Emperor Francis Joseph, _succ_. 1848.
_Foreign Secretary_: Count Berchtold.
_Ambassadors from Great Britain_: Sir Maurice de Bunsen.
_Russia_: M. Schebesco.
M. Kondachev (_Charge d'Affaires_).
_France_: M. Crozier.
_Germany_: Herr von Tschirscky-und-Boegendorff.
ITALY: King Victor Emmanuel III, _succ_. 1900.
_Foreign Secretary_: Marquis di San Giuliano.
_Ambassador from Great Britain_: Sir Rennell Rodd.
BELGIUM: King Albert, _succ_. 1909.
_Minister of Great Britain_: Sir Francis Villiers.
SERVIA: King Peter, _succ_. 1903.
_Minister of Great Britain_: C.L. des Graz.
D.M. Crackanthorpe (_First Secretary_).
_Russian Charge d'Affaires_: M. Strandtmann.
I
_Germany's attitude to Austria and Russia_.
From the very beginning of the conversations between the Powers on the
assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand at Serajevo, and on the
Austrian note to Servia, the German Government took up the attitude that
it was a 'matter for settlement between Servia and Austria alone.'[57]
Subsequently in their White Book they endeavoured to show that the
Servian agitation was part of Russian propagandism.[58] In the
negotiations, the cardinal point of their observations is that Russia is
not to interfere in this matter, although M. Paul Cambon pointed out
that 'Russia would be compelled by her public opinion to take action as
soon as Austria attacked Servia'.[59]
After the presentation of the Austrian note to Servia, Germany continued
to maintain the position that the crisis could be localized, and to
reject Sir Horace Rumbold's suggestion that 'in taking military action
in Servia, Austria would dangerously excite public opinion in
Russia'.[60]
At Vienna Sir Maurice de Bunsen, the British Ambassador, was very
frankly told by the German Ambassador that Germany was shielding Austria
in the Servian business:--
'As for Germany, she knew very well what she was about in backing up
Austria-Hungary in this matter.... Servian concessions were all a
sham. Servia proved that she well knew that they were insufficient
to satisfy the legitimate demands of Austria-Hungary by the fact
that before making her offer she had ordered mobilization and
retirement of Government from Belgrade.'[61]
M. Sazonof, the Russian Foreign Minister, seems to have divined this
policy of Germany pretty soon:--
'My interviews with the German Ambassador confirm my impression that
Germany is, if anything, in favour of the uncompromising attitude
adopted by Austria. The Berlin Cabinet, who could have prevented the
whole of this crisis developing, appear to be exercising no
influence upon their ally.... There is no doubt that the key of the
situation is to be found at Berlin.'[62]
When at the beginning of August the crisis had led to war, it is
interesting to observe the opinions expressed by high and well-informed
officials about German diplomacy. M. Sazonof summed up his opinion
thus:--
'The policy of Austria had throughout been tortuous and immoral, and
she thought she could treat Russia with defiance, secure in the
support of her German ally. Similarly the policy of Germany had been
an equivocal and double-faced policy, and it mattered little whether
the German Government knew or did not know the terms of the Austrian
ultimatum; what mattered was that her intervention with the Austrian
Government had been postponed until the moment had passed when its
influence would have been felt. Germany was unfortunate in her
representatives in Vienna and St. Petersburg; the former was a
violent Russophobe who had urged Austria on, the latter had reported
to his Government that Russia would never go to war.'[63]
And Sir Maurice de Bunsen on the same day wrote that he agreed with his
Russian colleague that
'the German Ambassador at Vienna desired war from the first, and his
strong personal bias probably coloured his action here. The Russian
Ambassador is convinced that the German Government also desired war
from the first.'[64]
Sir Maurice does not actually endorse this opinion concerning the
attitude of the German Government, but there can be no doubt that this
general attitude was most pernicious to the cause of European peace, and
that if the German Government had desired war they could scarcely have
acted more efficiently towards that end. No diplomatic pressure was put
upon Vienna, which under the aegis of Berlin was allowed to go to any
lengths against Servia. Over and over again the German diplomats were
told that Russia was deeply interested in Servia, but they would not
listen. As late as July 28th the German Chancellor himself refused 'to
discuss the Servian note', adding that 'Austria's standpoint, and in
this he agreed, was that her quarrel with Servia was a purely Austrian
concern with which Russia had nothing to do'.[65] Next day the German
Ambassador at Vienna was continuing 'to feign surprise that Servian
affairs could be of such interest to Russia'.[66] But in their White
Book, in order to blacken the character of Russia, the Germans remark
that they 'were perfectly aware that a possible warlike attitude of
Austria-Hungary against Servia might bring Russia into the field'.[67]
Both stories cannot be true: the German Government have, not for the
last time in the history of these negotiations, to choose between
ineptitude and guilt; the ineptitude of not recognizing an obvious fact,
and the guilt of deliberately allowing Austria to act in such a way that
Russia was bound to come into the field.
When Austria presented her ultimatum, Sir Edward Grey did all he could
to obtain the good offices of Russia for a conciliatory reply by Servia,
and to persuade the German Government to use influence with Austria so
that she should take a friendly attitude to Servia. On the day of the
presentation of the Austrian note he proposed to Prince Lichnowsky, the
German Ambassador, the co-operation of the four Powers, Germany, France,
Italy, and Great Britain, in favour of moderation at Vienna and St.
Petersburg, and when the Austrians rejected the Servian reply he took
the important step of proposing that the French, Italian, and German
Ambassadors should meet him in conference immediately 'for the purpose
of discovering an issue which would prevent complications'.[68] The
proposal was accepted with alacrity by the French and Italian
Governments. The German Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Herr von Jagow,
on the other hand, was unable or unwilling to understand the proposal,
and Sir Edward Goschen seems to have been unable to impress its real
character upon the Government of Berlin. For Herr von Jagow, on receipt
of the proposal, informed the British Ambassador, Sir Edward Goschen,
that the conference suggested
'would practically amount to a court of arbitration and could not in
his opinion be called together except at the request of Austria and
Russia. He could not therefore fall in with it.'
Sir Edward Goschen not unnaturally pointed out that
'the idea had nothing to do with arbitration, but meant that
representatives of the four nations not directly interested should
discuss and suggest means for avoiding a dangerous situation'.[69]
Herr von Jagow spoke in the same sense to the French and Italian
Ambassadors, who discussed the matter with their British colleague. Some
doubt seems to have arisen in their minds as to the sincerity of the
German Secretary of State's loudly expressed desire for peace; but,
giving him the benefit of the doubt, they concluded that the objection
must be to the 'form of the proposal'. 'Perhaps', added Sir Edward
Goschen, 'he himself could be induced to suggest lines on which he would
find it possible to work with us.'[70] The next day the same idea was
pressed by Sir Edward Grey upon Prince Lichnowsky:--
'The whole idea of mediation or mediating influence was ready to be
put into operation by any method that Germany could suggest if mine
was not acceptable.'[71]
But owing to German dilatoriness in this matter, events had by then gone
so far that the very gravest questions had arisen for this country.
With the refusal of the German Government to propose a form of mediation
acceptable to themselves before graver events had occurred, the first
period of the negotiation comes to an end. The responsibility of
rejecting a conference, which, by staving off the evil day, might have
preserved the peace of Europe, falls solely on the shoulders of Germany.
The reasons advanced by Herr von Jagow were erroneous, and though Dr.
von Bethmann-Hollweg, the Imperial Chancellor, was more conciliatory and
sympathetic, it may be noted that the German White Book[72] continues to
misrepresent Sir Edward Grey's proposal as a conference on the
particular question of the Austro-Servian dispute, and not on the
general situation of Europe.
In the period that follows come spasmodic attempts at negotiation by
direct conversations between the parties concerned, with no advantage,
but rather with the growth of mutual suspicion. Down to August 1st both
Sir Edward Grey and M. Sazonof were busy trying to find some formula
which might be accepted as a basis for postponing hostilities between
the Great Powers. And here it may be well to point out that Prince
Lichnowsky seems to have been left in the dark by his chiefs. On July
24th, the day after the Austrian note was presented, he was so little
acquainted with the true state of affairs, that speaking privately he
told Sir Edward Grey 'that a reply favourable on some points must be
sent at once by Servia, so that an excuse against immediate action might
be afforded to Austria'.[73] And in the matter of the conference, on the
very day that Herr von Jagow was making his excuses against entering the
proposed conference, Prince Lichnowsky informed Sir Edward Grey, that
the German Government accepted in principle mediation between Austria
and Russia by the four Powers, reserving, of course, their right as an
ally to help Austria if attacked.[74] The mutual incompatibility of the
two voices of Germany was pointed out from Rome, where the Marquis di
San Giuliano, the Italian Foreign Minister, attempted a reconciliation
between them, on information received from Berlin, that 'the difficulty
was rather the "conference" than the principle'.[75] But we may ask
whether Herr von Jagow's reply to Sir Edward Goschen does not really
show that the whole principle of a conference was objected to, seeing
that he said that such a 'conference was not practicable', and that 'it
would be best to await the outcome of the exchange of views between the
Austrian and Russian Governments'.[76] But, if it was not the principle
that was objected to, but only the form, where are we? We can do nothing
else but assume that the German Government objected to the terms
employed by Sir Edward Grey, and that for the sake of a mere quibble
they wasted time until other events made the catastrophe inevitable.
Impartiality will have to judge whether such action was deliberate or
not; whether in this case also it is crime or folly which has to be laid
at the door of the German Government.
The proposed conference having been rejected by Germany, an attempt was
then made by several Powers to invite Austria to suspend military
action. Although Count Mensdorff, the Austrian Ambassador in London, had
made on July 25th a distinction between military preparations and
military operations, and had urged that his Government had only the
former then in view, it was reported two days later from Rome that there
were great doubts 'whether Germany would be willing to invite Austria to
suspend military action pending the conference'. Even if she had been
willing to do so, it is very doubtful whether, in view of the Austrian
declaration of war against Servia on July 28th, and the simultaneous
Austrian decree for general mobilization, the position of Europe could
have been improved, for on July 29th that declaration was followed by
news of the Russian mobilization of the southern districts of Odessa,
Kiev, Moscow, and Kazan.[77]